Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 30th, 2025

Cynthia Dreger • July 30, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

July 30, 2025


The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.



While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenarios—one with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs.


While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canada’s exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar.


The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2½% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027.


In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January.


In the current tariff scenario, after contracting in the second quarter, GDP growth picks up to about 1% in the second half of this year as exports stabilize and household spending increases gradually. In this scenario, economic slack persists in 2026 and diminishes as growth picks up to close to 2% in 2027. In the de-escalation scenario, economic growth rebounds faster, while in the escalation scenario, the economy contracts through the rest of this year.


CPI inflation was 1.9% in June, up slightly from the previous month. Excluding taxes, inflation rose to 2.5% in June, up from around 2% in the second half of last year. This largely reflects an increase in non-energy goods prices. High shelter price inflation remains the main contributor to overall inflation, but it continues to ease. Based on a range of indicators, underlying inflation is assessed to be around 2½%.


In the current tariff scenario, total inflation stays close to 2% over the scenario horizon as the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly offset. There are risks around this inflation scenario. As the alternative scenarios illustrate, lower tariffs would reduce the direct upward pressure on inflation and higher tariffs would increase it. In addition, many businesses are reporting costs related to sourcing new suppliers and developing new markets. These costs could add upward pressure to consumer prices.


With still high uncertainty, the Canadian economy showing some resilience, and ongoing pressures on underlying inflation, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate unchanged. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs related to tariffs and the reconfiguration of trade. If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.


Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases from tariffs and trade disruptions are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. 


We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.


Information note


The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 17, 2025.


Read the July 30th., 2025 Monetary Report


CYNTHIA DREGER

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Cynthia Dreger • December 10, 2025
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%.  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

New to Credit? Let’s Build a Solid Foundation

By Cynthia Dreger • December 3, 2025
Starting from Scratch: How to Build Credit the Smart Way If you're just beginning your personal finance journey and wondering how to build credit from the ground up, you're not alone. Many people find themselves stuck in the classic credit paradox: you need credit to build a credit history, but you can’t get credit without already having one. So, how do you break in? Let’s walk through the basics—step by step. Credit Building Isn’t Instant—Start Now First, understand this: building good credit is a marathon, not a sprint. For those planning to apply for a mortgage in the future, lenders typically want to see at least two active credit accounts (credit cards, personal loans, or lines of credit), each with a limit of $2,500 or more , and reporting positively for at least two years . If that sounds like a lot—it is. But everyone has to start somewhere, and the best time to begin is now. Step 1: Start with a Secured Credit Card When you're new to credit, traditional lenders often say “no” simply because there’s nothing in your file. That’s where a secured credit card comes in. Here’s how it works: You provide a deposit—say, $1,000—and that becomes your credit limit. Use the card for everyday purchases (groceries, phone bill, streaming services). Pay the balance off in full each month. Your activity is reported to the credit bureaus, and after a few months of on-time payments, you begin to establish a credit score. ✅ Pro tip: Before you apply, ask if the lender reports to both Equifax and TransUnion . If they don’t, your credit-building efforts won’t be reflected where it counts. Step 2: Move Toward an Unsecured Trade Line Once you’ve got a few months of solid payment history, you can apply for an unsecured credit card or a small personal loan. A car loan could also serve as a second trade line. Again, make sure the account reports to both credit bureaus, and always pay on time. At this point, your focus should be consistency and patience. Avoid maxing out your credit, and keep your utilization under 30% of your available limit. What If You Need a Mortgage Before Your Credit Is Ready? If homeownership is on the horizon but your credit history isn’t quite there yet, don’t panic. You still have a few options. One path is to apply with a co-signer —someone with strong credit and income who is willing to share the responsibility. The mortgage will be based on their credit profile, but your name will also be on the loan, helping you build a record of mortgage payments. Ideally, when the term is up and your credit has matured, you can refinance and qualify on your own. Start with a Plan—Stick to It Building credit may take a couple of years, but it all starts with a plan—and the right guidance. Whether you're figuring out your first steps or getting mortgage-ready, we’re here to help. Need advice on credit, mortgage options, or how to get started? Let’s talk.